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Polling voters who won’t answer the phone, and other challenges of election math - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Polling voters who won’t answer the phone, and other challenges of election math - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Here’s an example: Let’s say that in a group of one million people, the actual level of support for Candidate X is 42%, though of course we don’t know that. The first time we poll 500 people, perhaps 41% of them will say they like the candidate. Maybe next time, we’d get 43% or 44%, followed by 42% a few times in a row. Over time, most of the results would fall between 38% and 46%. Plot all those points on a graph, and results cluster toward the center, forming a shape called a bell curve.



2020-02-10 10:02:36Z
https://www.inquirer.com/science/poll-statistics-reliability-cell-phones-monmouth-university-20200210.html

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